BOTH moves were populist but the timing and the combination were wrong. Within 15 months, Nigeria is literally on its knees. Between May 2023 and now, the pump price of fuel has gone from N197 per litre to N617 per litre and up to N1, 3000. President Tinubu promised the people that he would renew hope. He told us “e lo fokan bale.” On the contrary. cases of sudden death syndrome have increased. Nigerian youths are fleeing abroad in droves because they cannot find hope in their own country. Nigeria has not even been able to meet its OPEC production quota. When the spot price of Brent goes up as it did during COVID-19, and now in the face of the conflicts in the Middle East, and between Russia and Ukraine, Nigeria is unable to take advantage of given opportunities. The country is also underperforming in Domestic Revenue Generation as the elites in power, after a fashion, are more interested in their own luxury and comfort. The optics are scary.
The Tinubu government has left the people in a place of confusion: Fuel subsidy was removed on a whim, without clarity and proper consultation with stakeholders, and apparently no co-ordination with the sub-nationals.
What I find particularly intriguing is that last week the same Tinubu administration trying to find a way around the fuel scarcity in the country and the fact that fuel now sells for as much as N1, 300 per litre in parts of the country, directed the NNPC to use its 2023 final dividends due to the Federation to pay for petrol subsidy, in other words, the Federal Government wants the payment of dividends to the Federation to be suspended, to boost NNPCL’s cash flow. On its part, NNPCL says it will be unable to remit taxes and royalties to the Federation anyway because of on-going subsidy payments or what it calls “subsidy shortfall and FX differential.” In summary NNPCL says it has been paying subsidy, and the Federal Government says it should pay more. This is enough talk to make anybody have a headache. For, the same Tinubu administration since May 29, 2023, had insisted that there was no fuel subsidy in Nigeria, even when everyone including the IMF reported that fuel subsidy had been re-introduced as far back as December 2023. Nasir el-Rufai and others told us the government had reintroduced fuel subsidy. Senator Atiku Bagudu, Minister of Budget and Economic Planning said this was not true, quoting the PIA, and insisting that in fact the government was saving money from the removal of fuel subsidy, up to about N400 billion monthly.
The lie is now out in the open. The minimum that the Tinubu administration can do is stop the continuing cycle of deceit and hypocrisy on the fuel subsidy issue. The deceit should stop. We are in the era of transparency and accountability. The word of the government should be its bond. A government can admit that it made a mistake and it has found cause to change its mind. There is nothing wrong in that. It is not enough for President Tinubu to issue an order to NNPCL directing it to use royalties and dividends due to the Federal Government to manage fuel prices. What is the exact amount that we are talking about? What are the details? For how long? If there has been a change of policy, President Tinubu should be courageous enough to come before Nigerians and use the same energy and enthusiasm with which he pronounced “fuel subsidy is gone” to APOLOGISE to Nigerians, tell them a mistake has been made, and explain how his administration hopes to resolve the problem.
The reason there has been so much turmoil in town is because the people feel betrayed. President Tinubu needs to rebuild public confidence in his administration. He can start by making the government less ostentatious. He wants the people to make sacrifices. The process must begin with him. He needs to reinvent politics. He must lead by example. The nation needs to know the truth. It is normal to make mistakes. It is nobler to admit one’s errors and seek to make corrections.
In the face of the fuel scarcity in the land, Nigerians are asking: what is happening to the refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna? It does not require divine intelligence to get the refineries working, but what we are confronted with is an endless circus of lies. We are told again and again that the refineries will be completed, but we might as well be waiting for Godot. In August 2023, we were confidently informed that Nigeria would restart its four refineries by the end of 2024, so said Heineken Lokpobiri, the Minister of State for Petroleum. We heard the same thing in 2022. Lokpobiri repeated the lie. The Nigerian government should stop telling lies! It is irritating. Where is the Warri refinery that was supposed to start operation in the first quarter of 2024? Where is the Port Harcourt refinery that was “technically completed” in December 2023? Dates are set. Deadlines are not met. And we, the people, are supposed to understand that we live in a country where promises are not meant to be kept and leaders can do as they wish, without any explanation.? No. No. No. It is offensive that Nigeria is so blessed with oil and gas resources and all we talk about is crude oil theft, militancy in the Niger Delta and the country’s failure to meet production quota. To all intents and purposes, Nigeria is still dependent on oil resources despite argumentations that the country needs to diversify its economy, and invest more in the non-oil sector.
There is the unresolved matter of the Dangote Refinery. This was a project that we all prayed for and hoped for to meet local demands for petroleum products and generate competition and investment. In typical Nigeria fashion, a $20 billion worth of investment and the prospect of a pathway to economic regeneration has been reduced to petty stories about Dangote’s personality and identity, with such questions as why would he, a Kano man, set up such a big project in Yorubaland? Or why would anyone allow an extension of Dangote’s monopoly? How much did he contribute to Tinubu’s election campaign in 2023? As if that should matter? Somehow, the excitement over the proposed 650, 000 barrels of petroleum products per day has been abbreviated by typical Nigerian stories. Some kill joys have even tried to de-market the Dangote project. And then there are others who are saying that Mele Kyari is the problem. Twice on television, I have said clearly that Engr. Kyari is not the problem. In terms of record, he has done much better than his own predecessors. His spokespersons have given us much information about his efforts. I do not intend to be their megaphone, only to add that it is far too simplistic for Nigerians to seek a fall guy for the same problems that could have been easily addressed through long-term visioning. Nigeria waits for you. While you are busy doing your own thing, trying to make an impact, Nigerians have a good habit of waiting till you get to a significant moment and they would pounce on you, to destroy your dream. We must all be careful not to turn this country into a hostile environment for talent, creativity and good citizenship. Tinubu has a duty not only to fix the loopholes, but also to embark on an urgent national project of moral regeneration. There is too much toxicity in this land.
